It was eight weeks prior when the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or the reason for the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team continued to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, in only two games have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team that have put together a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, arced just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
